Prediction
Prediction
UEFA Euro 2016 qualifiers: predictions for Matchday 1
Dr Nicolas Scelles
Posted: September 5, 2014
Tagged: football / performance / prediction / uncertainty of outcome
Following on from a post earlier in the week, The Scorecard presents predictions for this coming week’s UEFA international games:
| Home | Away | Score | Model 1 corrected | Model 2 |
| Denmark | Armenia | 2-1 | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| Georgia | Ireland | 0-1 | -1.25 | -0.81 |
| Hungary | Northern Ireland | 2-1 | 1.15 | 0.54 |
| Faroe | Finland | 0 or 1-3 | -2.74 | -2.01 |
| Greece | Romania | 2-1 | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| Germany | Scotland | 3-1 or 0 | 2.10 | 2.54 |
| Gibraltar | Poland | 0-4 | -4.08 | -4.381 |
| Portugal | Albania | 1 or 2-0 | 1.37 | 1.61 |
| Serbia | France | 1-1 | -0.496 | -0.37 |
| Russia | Liechtenstein | 3-0 | 3.36 | 3.495 |
| Austria | Sweden | 1-1 | 0.49 | 0.31 |
| Montenegro | Moldova | 2-1 | 0.97 | 1.16 |
| Luxembourg | Belarus | 1-2 | -1.33 | -1.29 |
| Spain | Macedonia | 2-0 | 2.02 | 2.19 |
| Ukraine | Slovakia | 2-0 or 1 | 2.21 | 1.37 |
| Estonia | Slovenia | 1-1 or 2 | -0.37 | -0.96 |
| San Marino | Lithuania | 0-3 or 4 | -2.98 | -3.93 |
| Switzerland | England | 1 or 2-2 | -0.68 | -0.20 |
| Kazakhstan | Latvia | 1-1 or 0 | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| Azerbaijan | Bulgaria | 1-1 | -0.29 | -0.15 |
| Croatia | Malta | 3-1 or 0 | 1.58 | 2.86 |
| Norway | Italy | 1-2 | -1.19 | -0.69 |
| Czech Republic | Netherlands | 1-1 or 2 | -0.496 | -1.14 |
| Iceland | Turkey | 1-1 | -0.18 | 0.26 |
| Andorra | Wales | 0-2 | -1.63 | -2.33 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | Cyprus | 3-0 | 3.23 | 3.44 |
| Israel | Belgium | 1-2 | -0.72 | -1.07 |
1Given that Gibraltar did not play in the past, we arbitrarily chose to allocate San Marino’s coefficient to Gibraltar.
2 Israel-Belgium has been postponed and will be played on March 31, 2015.
About Dr Nicolas Scelles
Nicolas Scelles is a Lecturer at the School of Sport, Stirling University, Scotland. He holds a PhD in sports economics from the University of Caen Basse-Normandie, France. He has articles in international journals including Applied Economics, Economics Bulletin, International Journal of Sport Finance and International Journal of Sport Management and Marketing.